Economy – Page 19 – BRAZILGLOBAL.NET

Will Tightening cause a multi-speed recovery?

This article raises an interesting question: If monetary tightening starts in the US, will the US stock market drop while emerging markets continue upwards in a “multi-speed” recovery? The outlook for the world economy Curb your enthusiasm Apr 22nd 2010 From The Economist print edition A welcome recovery—but an uneven one, with dangers both forContinue reading “Will Tightening cause a multi-speed recovery?”

Ferguson, Complexity and Collapse

There may be very significant changes in long-standing power relationships which can occur quickly. Niall Ferguson, a Harvard Professor, addresses this issue in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. He makes reference to a book, The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb, who correctly predicted the financial crash of late 2008. This would have impact onContinue reading “Ferguson, Complexity and Collapse”

Investment in China. A slowdown may compromise Brazil outlook says JP Morgan

JP MORGAN held its annual Brazil Opportunities Conference on April 14 and 15. I extracted the comments on the presentation made by analyst Adrian Mowat. He articulates causes of a possible slowdown in China and how this can affect Brazil in the short term. I am not sure I agree with all of it. Iron oreContinue reading “Investment in China. A slowdown may compromise Brazil outlook says JP Morgan”

Trying to understand the BRICs. First question: Is China in a bubble?

A comparison among BRIC countries will have China in the podium in many aspects. It is the largest country with the fastest economic growth. But what is the quality of this growth? Many Brazilian companies have expanded to China. Vale, Gerdau, Embraer are among them. No question that being in China is an strategic moveContinue reading “Trying to understand the BRICs. First question: Is China in a bubble?”

Brazil versus Mexico – inflation-wise

Mexico and Brazil, the two largest economies in Latin America, might look quite similar to foreign eyes. In fact, they couldn’t be more different. Take inflation behavior in the first quarter of 2010. Inflation expectations worsened in Mexico as they did in Brazil. Mexicans are dealing with around 6,5% versus a target of 4,5% inContinue reading “Brazil versus Mexico – inflation-wise”