Brazilian economy cools down with global turbulence

For the fifth consecutive week, Brazilian financial analysts reduced their estimates for the Brazilian economic growth this year.

Local market sentiment poll – Focus Report

According to the Focus report, released by the Brazilian Central Bank the forecast 2011 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) fell from 3.29% to 3.20%.

The same happened in the inflation projection this year, which stood at 6.50%; the government’s target ceiling. Currently, the Selic rate is 11.50% per year. Exchange rate forecasts were not altered, thus R $ 1.75 per dollar.

Foreign direct investment expectations for 2011 remained stable at U.S. $ 60 billion, while for 2012 the inflow of investments in Brazil went up from 52 to $ 53 billion.

Industrial production index: not good

Global turbulence is halting the Brazilian industry production more then expected.  Analysts are disappointed with industrial production in September. The index fell a stronger-than-expected 2.0% and weakness was spread across sectors.  September’s industrial result suggests hardly any GDP growth at all in the third quarter and a 3% forecast is now considered optimistic by Itau Unibanco research.

Published by Hildete Vodopives

Hildete de Moraes Vodopives is founder of Brazil Global and of the Harvard Strategists Group. She has a PhD in Economic History and advises companies and investment agencies in international business development.She served as Corporate Relations Director and later, on the board of the Brazilian Investment Analysts Association (APIMEC).

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