The World in 2011 by The Economist projects a continued multispeed recovery with emerging markets growing output faster than the Rich World.
“Nowadays, it is usually sunnier in the emerging world, and so it will again prove in 2011. Yet there, too, much of the growth in 2010 came from the pocket-books of national governments. Policy support will be reduced—not necessarily because of concerns over its affordability, but because inflation is a worry in many markets and fears abound of asset-price bubbles. A slowdown seems inevitable. Even so, in aggregate, the developing world will still outpace the rich world by a factor of four. China’s massive size means that, though it is not yet a rival for the economic might of the United States, it does have the ability to influence the prospects of countries far beyond its borders. In 2010 a strong resurgence of Chinese demand helped lift other Asian nations, along with commodity producers as diverse as Brazil, Australia and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2011 growth in China will slip back. The government has already stamped on the brakes, and its sudden change of policy may even cause a wobble early in 2011. But, if that happens, China is more than capable of pumping the economy back up to speed.”
“Robin Bew: editorial director and chief economist, Economist Intelligence Unit”